Theres A 10 Percent Chance Of A ThreeWay MLB WildCard Tie

After all three teams lost Wednesday, the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants remain locked in a three-way tie for the National League’s two wild-card slots. Our prediction model, which is based on a simulation that uses each team’s Elo rating, gives New York a 75 percent chance of grabbing at least one of those two slots, with St. Louis at 62 percent and San Francisco at 59 percent.1There’s also a slim chance — 4 percent — that either the Pirates or the Marlins sneaks into a wild card. But what are the odds all three end up tied after the final game of the regular season, thereby triggering a crazy three-game sprint to the Division Series?Elo assigns a 3 percent chance that the Cardinals, Mets and Giants have the same record on Oct. 2. However, it also projects that there’s a 0.5 percent chance a three-way tie could include the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies or even the Dodgers, if San Francisco somehow chases them down for the NL West title. Add it all up, and there’s about a 3.5 percent chance of a three-way tie in the NL.What might surprise you is that, although the NL has three teams tied right now, the odds of a three-way tie in the AL are almost double those of a tie in the NL. The AL’s possibilities are more varied; most include some combination of Toronto, Baltimore, Houston and Detroit, with other, more exotic combos that also involve the Mariners, the Yankees and even division leaders such as the Red Sox and Indians (if they botch the season’s final week and a half). No single AL trio is more likely than the NL’s Cardinals/Mets/Giants combo — the AL’s most likely is Baltimore/Houston/Toronto with a 1.1 percent chance of occurring — but because there are more viable contenders, the sum of all the various permutations comes out to a 6.2 percent probability of some three-team tie happening.In any event, today’s odds of 3.5 percent in the NL and 6.2 percent in the AL imply a 9.6 percent chance that we’ll see a three-way tie somewhere.2Multiplying 96.5 percent by 93.8 percent — the respective chance of each league not having a three-way tie — and subtracting the result from 100 percent yields 9.6 percent. There’s also a 0.2 percent chance that both leagues will have three-way ties. If we do, MLB’s tiebreaking rules are going to be a treat for those who love geeking out over strategies and hypotheticals.Say Mets/Cardinals/Giants does happen in the NL. In that case, the Cardinals would have top priority among the three (because of their superior intradivision record over the Mets and head-to-head-record over the Giants) and host a game for one of the wild-card slots. But the fun really begins in determining their opponent. The Mets have the next-highest priority, and they could choose to play on the road against St. Louis and, if they lose, play on the road again versus San Francisco in the next tiebreaker. Or they could let the Giants travel to St. Louis for the first tiebreaker game, then face the loser in a do-or-die contest at home.As Jayson Stark wrote Thursday morning, no team has chosen to slice its tiebreaker chances in half by taking the single-home-game option instead of having two cracks at it on the road, if necessary.3New York wouldn’t need the second try if it won the first tiebreaker against St. Louis. The Mets’ injury-riddled staff is in such shambles, however, that the team might ponder it. Elo would give New York a 73 percent chance of winning at least one of two road games against the Cardinals and Giants with top two starters Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz4Assuming Matz is available after an injury knocked him out in late August. This calculation also is based on the assumption that the Cardinals and Giants trot out a starter as good as the average of their respective rotations for these tiebreaker games. on the mound — if it can manage to set its rotation enough for that 1-2 punch — compared with only a 55 percent chance with Syndergaard starting one game at home. But burning through two starters could leave the Mets with a subpar starter on the hill — and as low as a 45 percent chance of winning the wildcard game.5Assuming the Mets use their worst starter, Robert Gsellman, against St. Louis or San Francisco. Compelling, but probably not enough to justify giving up the 18 percentage point difference between having two tiebreaker chances6Again, if necessary. and just one.Of course, that’s all assuming the 3.5 percent chance of a three-way tie even becomes a reality. A two-way tie is far more in the realm of possibility — 30 percent likely in the AL, and 22 percent in the NL — but right now it’s only about 50-507Based on a 36 percent chance of some tiebreaker in the AL and 25.3 percent chance in the NL, there’s a 47.8 percent chance that neither league produces a tie to be broken with an extra game and a 7.9 percent chance that things get really wild and both teams need at least one extra game (using the same kind of calculation we used for the chance that neither league has a tie.) that we’ll see any tiebreaker at all, despite how the standings look currently. Still, that’s a lot higher than the 1.4 percent chance of one before the season. read more

Turks and Caicos named as one of the safest in Caribbean Yahoo

first_img Related Items:caribbean, justin kersey, safest, yahoo news Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, 03 Nov 2015 – In a Yahoo! News article on crime and safety in the Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos makes one of two lists; thankfully for this destination the author names the TCI as one of the safest places to visit in the region. The article: ‘Is the Caribbean more dangerous than you realize?’ by Sid Lipsey is trending high on Yahoo! citing the destinations which are getting travel advisories and commending the ones which are not. St Lucia, Trinidad, Barbados, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and The Bahamas, more specifically Nassau are highlighted as higher risk for robbery, armed robbery, rape, assaults and murder. The piece talks about the most dangerous cruise stops, and Justin Kersey, regional manager for the Americas at international risk management firm iJET, told Yahoo Travel that, and I quote: “Generally speaking, we have seen a slight increase in crime across the region; from Barbados to Trinidad to the Dominican Republic, we have seen a little bit of an uptick.” Kersey says the crime increase stems from a regional economic downturn. Nearby Bahamas is charting the highest numbers when it comes to rape; Jamaica, also a neighbor has recorded five tourist murders. Lipsey, who released the article today said the low crime destinations are: Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, St. Martin — St. Maarten, Aruba and the Turks and Caicos; three of these are British overseas territories. There was recommendation for readers to be careful no matter where in the Caribbean they chose to go and that tourists, who stick to well-known areas that are in the tourist districts are generally fine. Beaches Resort does not owe TCI Gov’t; both sides want multi-million dollar dispute resolved Beaches Resort Turks and Caicos confirms indefinite closure in 2021 Recommended for you Social Media on the job, what a study revealslast_img read more

Republicans fail to endorse candidate for Governor at San Diego convention

first_imgRepublicans fail to endorse candidate for Governor at San Diego convention Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitter May 7, 2018 Posted: May 7, 2018 KUSI Newsroom SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Mail-in ballots are beginning to go out to voters today ahead of California’s June 5 primary election, but GOP voters may have a tough time choosing who to back after delegates failed to endorse a gubernatorial candidate at the California Republic Party’s state convention in San Diego over the weekend.Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox and Assemblyman Travis Allen, R- Huntington Beach, were vying for the party’s endorsement for governor, but neither earned the 60 percent of votes needed. Cox received 55.3 percent, Allen received 40.5 percent and 4.1 percent of delegates chose to endorse neither candidate.Primary voting for governor will see all candidates from all parties on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters facing off in November, regardless of their party affiliation.California’s Democrats also failed to endorse a candidate for governor at their convention in February, but Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a wide lead over all rivals in most polls. Cox and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, are polling close together in second and third, with state Treasurer John Chiang and Allen polling a little ways behind them in fourth and fifth, respectively.The danger for Republicans, according to many of the party’s delegates, is that if a Republican gubernatorial candidate is not on the November ballot, it could hinder GOP turnout for the U.S. Senate, the House of Representatives and down-ballot elections at the state and local levels.“It’s absolutely necessary that we as a party are united around the top race in the state,” Los Angeles County delegate Karen Roseberry said as she unsuccessfully urged the party to reconsider the endorsement vote, according to the Los Angeles Times. “Every down-ticket race is counting on this.”A spokesman for Cox’s campaign said the wealthy businessman is now the only Republican with enough funding to challenge the Democrats, according to the Times and the San Diego Union-Tribune. Allen — who said he was “ecstatic” that Cox failed to claim an endorsement victory despite his wealth — said he believes he can still challenge for a top-two finish next month. He said he is sending out more than 13 million mailers this week to invigorate the state’s GOP voters.The three-day convention wrapped up Sunday at the Sheraton San Diego Hotel & Marina in the Midway District, with delegates voting to endorse retired Judge Steven Bailey for attorney general, Cole Harris for lieutenant governor and Mark Meuser for secretary of state.But in another blow to the party, there were no candidates eligible for endorsement in the U.S. Senate race to challenge Dianne Feinstein. Patrick Little, a neo-Nazi who has praised Adolf Hitler and has polled second behind Feinstein in recent polls, was barred from the convention Saturday when he tried to register.State Republican leaders said there was no room for Little’s anti-Semitic views in their party. State GOP leaders have distanced themselves from Little, saying they have no records of him ever serving as a delegate and he has no relationship to the state Republican party. KUSI Newsroom, last_img read more

General Electric sells Japan lending unit for 48 billion to Sumitomo Mitsui

first_imgGE Capital is exiting from Japan by selling its commercial lending business to Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing for approximately $4.8 billion, General Electric Co said on Tuesday.The deal will be concluded by April 2016. GE Capital will sell Capital Finance, Fleet Service and Vendor Finance, including employees of the business.Sumitomo Mitsui, a leading Japanese leasing company, is on  an expansion spree entering China, Southeast Asia and the US.A spokesman for GE Capital said in Tokyo that the company will be left with a small joint venture in Japan after the conclusion of the deal.  The deal is in line with the Fairfield-based conglomerate’s strategy to focus on industrial businesses and reduce its lending-related activities, according to AP.The largest change involves selling most of GE Capital’s assets, including $ 26.5 billion in real estate assets.”We continue to make quick progress on the sale of our international assets and are pleased to sell this business to a company that is committed to growth for our customers and employees,” said Keith Sherin, chairman and CEO, GE Capital.The sale will be subject to approval by regulatory authorities, the AP report added.The announcement comes a day before the annual review of GE’s performance and business outlook to be hosted by Jeff Immelt, chairman and CEO of GE.On Monday, shares of General Electric Co traded at their highest valuation in more than 10 years, marking a significant change, besides putting pressure on the firm to “show it can drive profits in line with its newfound market premium.”GE shares were trading at 20 times forward 12-months earnings projections, their highest level since 2005, according to Thomson Reuters data.”There is an expectation that GE, after years of not growing well, will now grow better than many of its peers,” said Scott Lawson, vice president of investment management firm Westwood Holdings Group.last_img read more

Ershads body to be taken to Rangpur Tuesday

first_imgFormer president of Bangladesh and Jatiya Party chairman Hussain Mohammad Ershad. Prothom Alo File PhotoThe body of former president of Bangladesh and Jatiya Party chairman Hussain Mohammad Ershad will be taken to Rangpur on Tuesday, say party officials.The 89-year-old leader of the opposition in the Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament) died at the Combined Military Hospital in Dhaka this (Sunday) morning.JP presidium member Khaled Akhter confirmed this to Prothom Alo.The Inter Services Public Relations Directorate (ISPR) assistant director Rashedul Alam Khan also said that the former president died around 7:45am.Ershad’s wife Raushan Ershad and son Saad Ershad went to CMH around 8:00 in the morning, JP said.The body has been kept at CMH morgue.JP chairman’s deputy press secretary Khandaker Delwar Jalali told Prothom Alo in the morning that the first namaaz-e-janaza of Ershad will be held central army mosque after the Zuhr prayers.His second janaza will be held at the South Plaza of the Jatiya Sangsad at 10:00am tomorrow, Monday, while the third janaza will be held at Baitul Mukarram, the national mosque of Bangladesh, at 11:00am on the same day.Ershad’s body will be taken to Rangpur on Tuesday by a helicopter and a janaza will be held there. His body will then be brought back to Dhaka.He will be buried at the army graveyard in Dhaka as was his wish, said Jatiya Party presidium member Ziauddin Bablu.JP acting chairman GM Quader on Saturday said his brother HM Ershad had been on life support at the CMH.Physicians had long been trying to make his kidney and liver functions normal, but there was no improvement in this regard, he added.Ershad, also the leader of the opposition in parliament, was admitted to the CMH on 27 June as his condition deteriorated.Ershad was born in Cooch Behar of the then British India on 1 February 1930. His father Mokbul Hossain served as a minister of the-then Maharaja of Cooch Behar. Later, his family shifted to Rangur.last_img read more